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This concerns the 2026/27 academic year and a study by the Institute of International Education (IIE). Having surveyed 585 U.S. universities, they found that 59% have already recorded a decline in applications, 63% expect a decline in the coming year as well, and 25% anticipate that the decline will be dramatic. The drop in undergraduate programs is estimated at 31%, while in master's and postgraduate programs it reaches as much as 43%.
In 2025/26, a 17% reduction in applications from international students had already been observed.
What is the cause of the problem?
Experts cite the tightening of US visa and immigration policy as the primary cause: 92% of those surveyed believe that visa denials and delays are to blame, 80% point to the numerous travel restrictions to the United States. At the same time, 77% also mention the reorientation of applicants toward other countries — but which is the cause and which is the effect?
Who is most affected by the difficulties
Indian students account for the largest share of this decline: they are rapidly losing interest in the United States, and more than 60% of American universities report that the number of applications from Indian nationals has dropped sharply. Yet in 2025/26, there were more than 360,000 students from India in the country — nearly a third of all international students, the largest national «diaspora»! However, if the US government continues to be so stringent in issuing F-1 visas to Indian students (or simply not issuing them: last year, 62% fewer student visas were granted than the year before), the decline will continue to grow. When tuition costs $70,000 or more, such obstacles are turning Indian families away from education in the United States.
Add to this the uncertainty surrounding employment programs — OPT and H-1B, which for many were the main draw and bonus of studying in the United States, and it becomes clear why Indian students have so noticeably cooled toward American universities.
Despite some friction with China's policies, the number of Chinese students in the United States is not declining — it is actually increasing: in 2025, applications from China accounted for 58%, and in 2026 already 65%.
What students choose instead of the United States
If you survey the same Indian students, the structure of their interests is shifting:
- Germany is gaining momentum — compared to 2022, interest in the country has doubled,
- UAE: Indians now make up 49% of all international students there,
- Ireland: not cheap, but English-language programs plus easy access to the European job market.
The trend is already clear and global: the legendary «Big Four» — the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia — are no longer the dominant powers, and students from around the world are ready to consider numerous alternative destinations for their studies.
How universities are adapting
84% of American higher education institutions continue to view international students as their primary focus and are willing to invest their resources, infrastructure, and budgets in attracting them. For example, many are trying to make admission terms more flexible: 76% offered the option to defer enrollment to spring, and 56% — even to fall. But the final adjustments are made by the presidential administration and the government of the United States, and universities are left to adapt.
