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In 2025, the United States issued 23% fewer student visas than the year before. This applies to all categories — F-1, M-1, and J-1, but the situation is most critical for F-1: issuance fell by roughly one third compared to 2024.
Which countries suffer most from the new US policy
The situation has become particularly noticeable in the two largest markets for American universities — China and India: the number of visas issued to Chinese students decreased by 28%, while for Indian students it dropped by as much as 57%.
The decline in the flow of students from India is a particular problem for American universities, especially for master's and STEM programs: the number of Indian students enrolled in master's and other postgraduate programs in the US is more than four times the number of Indian undergraduate students. Also this negative trend is not new: in 2025, 61% of Indian applicants were denied a student visa to the US, and 61% of universities that participated in the IIE 2026 Spring Snapshot on International Educational Exchange reported a decline in applications from India overall.
There is, in fact, no one to replace applicants from China and India. For example, the number of visas issued to students from Ghana and Nepal in 2025 fell by 52% and 55% respectively. The CommonApp platform, through which a significant portion of international applications to American colleges are submitted, recorded an 11% decline in applications from students in Asia for the 2025/26 programs, a 17% decline from Africa, and a 34% drop for Ghana.
An additional problem remains visa processing delays: they slow down the application process and create additional uncertainty for both students and universities.
The decline may intensify
A major risk factor for international enrollment has been the change in the rules governing the stay of foreign students in the US. The Donald Trump administration is sensationally planning to abandon the decades-old Duration of Status (D/S) system: it allowed students to continue studying on an F-1 visa and then transition to participating in the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program. Under the new system, after four years of residence in the US, students will have to apply to immigration authorities for an extension — and there is no guarantee that such a request will be approved.
This is especially critical for OPT participants: the post-graduation practical preparation program begins after the completing studies. In practice, most students who plan to remain in the US through OPT will need an additional extension.
In the 2024/25 academic year, 143,740 Indian students participated in OPT — nearly half of all program participants.
The abolition of the D/S system is not yet a finalized practice: NAFSA and other organizations are challenging the new rules in court.
The consequences may prove more significant than experts predict
The decline in visa issuance is already affecting forecasts for international enrollment at American universities. NAFSA previously published a forecast for the 2026/27 academic year based on application trends recorded in the IIE study: according to its estimates, American universities could see a shortfall of up to 111,000 foreign students. The potential financial consequences are also significant: the expected reduction in the international student community could lead to a loss of approximately $3.4 billion in revenue and nearly 40,000 jobs.
American universities are simultaneously facing declining demand in key markets, difficulties attracting students from new countries, and changes to the rules governing stays after completing studies. For a system that has traditionally relied on a significant influx of international students, this creates serious risks to enrollment, revenue — and the competitiveness of the US in the global education market.
